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Vietnam Energy Forum

A number of the calculations on the balance of electricity supply and demand in Vietnam for 2024

 - The Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) has just updated the electricity supply plan for production, business and people's daily activities in the last months of 2023 and forecast for 2024 to the Prime Minister. The report specifically noted that In 2024, electricity shortages may still occur in June and July.

The updates, and calculations by the Electricity of Vietnam (EVN) show that the total system produced and imported electricity output in the remaining months (from September to December in 2023) estimates 95.6 - 97 2 billion kWh, growing from 9.9 - 11.8% over the same period in 2022. Accumulated for the whole year 2023, the total produced and imported electricity output of the whole system will be estimated to reach 281.9 - 283, 6 billion kWh, an increase of 5.1 - 5.7% over the same period in 2022, reaching 99.1 - 99.6% of the approved plan in 2023.

According to MOIT on electricity balance with ensuring coal supply for electricity generation, overcoming breakdowns in the thermal power plants and improving the water levels in hydropower reservoirs and basic ensuring electricity supply in the remaining months of 2023 for production, business and people activities. Besides, thermal power units in the North must be maintained and repaired according to the plans for preparing the power generation in the dry season of 2024, and the spare capacity in the North is low at some points in the final months of 2023.

To proactively respond to unfavorable conditions in electricity supply that may occur in the last months of 2023, it is necessary to continue to synchronously deploy operational solutions, save electricity and accelerate the progress for operating the power plants and transmission power grids.

On the other hand, MOIT requested EVN to direct the National Power System Dispatch Center to closely coordinate with units managing and operating hydropower reservoirs to regularly update and closely monitor the hydrological situation of the hydropower reservoirs to have an optimal and effective reservoir operation plan.

EVN must direct the National Power Transmission Corporation and power transmission units to increase response, inspection, and review of power transmission grids under their management to quickly detect and promptly handle any equipment problems, minimize the possibility of problems occurring, or separate the equipment from operation. To review for ensure the normal operation of the automatic and protective relay system of the power transmission grid.

Together with EVN, MOIT requires corporations such as Vietnam National Coal-Mineral Industries (Vinacomin), Vietnam Petroleum (PVN) and power generation units to direct all power plants under their management to closely monitor and supervise the operation of the plant's equipment to prevent subjective breakdowns. They must strengthen inspection, reinforce equipment, overcome defects to ensure improved operational reliability, and increase the power generation capacity of generating units, review and ensure normal operation of the automatic and protective relay systems of the generating units.

In addition, ensuring backup materials for the equipment of the power plants, it is necessary to speed up the progress of overcoming breakdowns, as well as put into operation thermal power units with long-term problems and urgently overcome short-term breakdowns.

Dong Bac Corporation, Vinacomin, and PVN coordinate with EVN and the investors of the thermal power plants to ensure an adequate supply of coal and gas for electricity production.

Balancing electricity supply and demand in 2024:

According to EVN, the balance of electricity supply and demand in 2024 is calculated with a forecast of base electricity load growth at 8.96%, with 2 scenarios of water flow as normal case (water frequency of 65% ) and extreme case (the water follow frequency = 90%). In particular, update the progress of new power plants such as Ialy Hydropower expansion and power electricity imported from Laos, etc.

With the normal water flow plan, the national power system basically meets the power supply, but due to the low reserve capacity of the Northern power system, it still faces stress on peak capacity at certain times (from 13:00 - 16:00, 19:00 - 22:00 on hot days).

In the case of extreme water flow, ensuring electricity supply, especially for the Northern region, will be more difficult, and there may be a shortage of capacity (about 420 - 1,770 MW) in some peak hours in June and July.

From the above forecasts, MOIT asks the Prime Minister to consider a number of solutions and direct relevant ministries, and agencies to ensure water storage on hydropower plants for operating flexibly and smoothly.

On the other hand, the Prime Minister to promptly consider and directly remove the difficulties in site clearance, and compensation and as soon as possible make decisions on power plant projects that already have investors, but are slow to deploy construction investment...


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