Vietnam’s Offshore Wind Target by 2030: Insights from the Government Meeting

Under the revised Power Development Plan VIII (PDP VIII), Vietnam targets 6,000 MW of offshore wind capacity by 2030. However, no project has yet received formal investment approval. With less than five years remaining, the Government’s recent directions demonstrate strong determination to remove regulatory barriers and accelerate project development, while also maintaining caution over risks such as speculative project reservations, policy speculation, and potential future legal disputes.

Deputy Prime Ministers Pham Gia Tuc and Le Tien Chau chair a meeting with the Ministry of Industry and Trade and relevant agencies on the draft Decree guiding the implementation of policies and mechanisms for national energy development during 2026–2030. Photo: VGP/Phuong Nguyen.

A Wide Gap Between Planning and Reality

Under the revised Power Development Plan VIII (PDP VIII), Vietnam targets 6,000 MW of offshore wind capacity by 2030, increasing to 17,500 MW by 2035, and potentially reaching 113–139 GW by 2050. These are highly ambitious goals given the current reality that no offshore wind project has yet completed the legal procedures required for implementation.

Offshore wind projects typically require long development timelines, often 6–8 years or more, covering site surveys, wind and seabed assessments, environmental studies, financing arrangements, and construction. This means that if legal and regulatory frameworks continue to face delays, achieving the 2030 target will become increasingly challenging.

“Survey Rights Should Not Automatically Mean Investment Rights”

A key message from Deputy Prime Minister Le Tien Chau was that approval for offshore wind surveys should not automatically lead to project investment approval. This reflects the Government’s concern over potential “project reservation” practices.

In recent years, many domestic and international companies have proposed offshore wind surveys covering tens of thousands of megawatts across Vietnam’s coastal areas. Without transparent control mechanisms, survey rights could become a tool for reserving marine space, creating monopolistic advantages, or waiting for more favorable electricity pricing policies.

However, this also raises a challenge: offshore wind surveys require substantial upfront investment. Without reasonable incentives or safeguards, developers may hesitate to commit to long-term, high-risk projects.

Balancing Investment Attraction and Speculation Risks

Unlike many other power sources, offshore wind requires extremely high upfront development costs. Offshore survey programs alone can cost tens of millions of US dollars, covering wind measurements, oceanographic studies, seabed geological surveys, cable route assessments, and environmental evaluations. However, Vietnam still lacks a complete legal framework for offshore wind, making policy uncertainty a major concern for international investors.

Therefore, the key challenge is not only preventing project speculation but also creating an investment framework attractive enough to retain major developers in the Vietnamese market.

Deputy Prime Minister Pham Gia Tuc highlighted this direction by emphasizing that investor selection should be based on transparent criteria, including financial capacity, technology, experience, and implementation commitments.

The Government has also stressed the importance of enabling domestic companies to participate on an equal and competitive basis, rather than allowing the market to be dominated entirely by foreign players. Offshore wind development is not only about electricity generation - it can also drive growth in mechanical engineering, ports, logistics, shipbuilding, and local supply chains, potentially becoming a new industrial growth engine for Vietnam.

Challenges Go Beyond Investment Mechanisms

Even if a new Decree is issued soon, offshore wind development will continue to face major challenges, particularly in transmission infrastructure.

The South Central Coast and Mekong Delta regions, where most offshore wind potential is concentrated, will require significant grid investments to accommodate future capacity. This mirrors lessons from Vietnam’s previous solar boom, where many completed projects faced curtailment due to overloaded transmission networks.

In addition, offshore wind still lacks a clear pricing mechanism, bankable power purchase agreements, and effective risk-sharing mechanisms for exchange rate fluctuations and investment cost changes. Combined with high global interest rates and ongoing supply chain volatility, these remain significant challenges for the sector.

A Regulatory “Sprint” Is Needed

The latest directions from the two Deputy Prime Ministers carry a dual message: accelerate offshore wind development to support energy security and economic growth, while maintaining strict oversight to avoid repeating the shortcomings seen during previous periods of rapid renewable expansion.

The challenge is that offshore wind cannot be developed through a “learn-as-you-go” approach. Excessive caution could jeopardize the 6,000 MW by 2030 target, while weak regulation may create risks of marine resource speculation, legal disputes, and market distortions.

What Vietnam needs now is not only a guiding Decree, but a stable, transparent, and predictable policy framework that can provide investors with the confidence to commit billions of dollars in long-term capital.

With limited time remaining before 2030, and given the long development cycle of offshore wind projects, the 2025–2026 period may prove to be a decisive window for turning the revised PDP VIII targets into reality./.