EVN reported the 'dangerous and pressing status’ of the power supply to the MOIT

Hydropower plants will lack water, and fuel supply (coal, gas) will face difficulties:

In document 2187/EVN-KTSX+TTD reporting the dangerous and pressing status of power supply to the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT), EVN said: Currently, hydrological developments are not favorable, in the north reservoirs with poor water quality, the water flow in the first 4 months of this year was only about 70-90% of the average of many years. The same lakes of the central and southern regions as Dai Ninh, Tri An, Dak R'Tih, Song Con 2... had poor water.

As of April 24, many hydropower reservoirs on the system had low water levels, potentially affecting the security of the electricity supply and serving people's needs for the remainder of the 2023 dry season. There are 9 lakes that have reached approximately, or below dead water level with a total capacity of about 3,000 MW.

In addition, there have been 18 large hydropower reservoirs with a remaining capacity of less than 20%, 18 reservoirs under the inter-reservoir operation process with lower water levels than regulated, and 22/31 reservoirs violating the water level limit in 2 weeks in a row.

The remaining output in the reservoirs of the whole system is 4.5 billion kWh with 1.6 billion kWh lower than the plan and 4.1 billion kWh lower than the same period in 2022.

According to the forecast of the Center for Forecasting National meteorological hydrology: El Nino phenomenon will occur in the last months of 2023, causing an increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall in comparison with the average of many years. This would make the flow to the reservoirs in the last months of the year continues to decrease.

Not only is there a lack of water for power generation, but the fuel supply for coal and gas power plants is also difficult. Currently, the supply capacity of the Vietnacomin and Northeast Corporation is 46 million tons, lower than the coal supply chart for power generation in 2023 approved in Decision No. 163/QD-BCT dated 6/2/2023 by more than 6 million tons.

Particularly the thermal power plants of EVN would store about 1.3 million tons. The purchase of coal to supplement the amount of coal that cannot be supplied by Vinacomin and the Northeast Corporation faces many difficulties due to market limitations and coal import infrastructure, so there has been a shortage of coal at the plants for a few moments.

Regarding gas fuel, according to the announcements of the Vietnam Oil and Gas Group (PVN) and the Vietnam Gas Corporation (PV GAS), the gas supply capacity in 2023 will continuously downward trend compared to previous years due to some main fields entering a decline period

The expected gas output in 2023 is 5.6 billion m3 lower than in 2022 at 1.31 billion m3. In addition, some gas fields have had a long period of exploitation and frequent breakdowns, making it more difficult to supply gas for power generation. The renewable energy projects (solar and wind power projects), in May, June, and July will be also forecast lower than 2022, towards the end of the dry season period the tends to decrease, especially during the daily dark peaks.

According to EVN's assessment: In the event of extreme situations such as electricity capacity in the North increasing by 15% over the same period in 2022 (long hot days); unit breakdown or delay in repairing and putting into operation the new power plants, the water level of the large hydropower reservoirs drops deeply... the Northern power system will encounter the situation of not being able to meet the peak load in May and June with the largest shortfall estimated at about 1,600-4,900 MW.

Solution:

According to the 2023 plan, EVN will optimally mobilize hydropower plants in the North, combined with increasing maximum transmission from the Center to the North, regulating to raise and keep the water level equal to the planned water level until the end of May. 2023 to increase the available capacity for hydropower plants.

Along with that, it is necessary to strengthen the inspection, consolidation, and overcome defects to improve the reliability and availability of the power generating units, transmission lines/substations, and coordinate with domestic fuel suppliers for a plan to provide enough fuel for power generation.

EVN will also shift the peak hours of small hydropower sources under the MOIT guideline. At the same time, EVN will strengthen negotiations to buy electricity from abroad. For the transitional renewable energy projects, EVN will continue to negotiate and agree on a temporary price for operation until the two parties agree on an official electricity price in order to promptly exploit and supply electricity to the power system.

EVN also considers that: Saving electricity and using electricity efficiently is a very important solution to ensure enough electricity during the peak heat stages. In addition, EVN will continuously implement the load adjustment program, and accelerate the implementation of non-commercial voluntary load adjustment in the Northern region from May to August 2023.

To remove the difficulties and obstacles, EVN proposes MOIT consider and direct PVN, Vinacomin, and Northeast Corporation to ensure a stable supply of coal and gas, priority to gas supply for power generation, and ensure a stable operation of the thermal power units. Soon as possible to have the views for EVN petitions in Document No. 1499/EVNTTD+TCKT dated 30/3/2023 regarding the principle of determining electricity prices for the transitional renewable energy projects.

In the long term, EVN believes that: It is necessary to have a mechanism to develop renewable energy projects and supplement the PDP of the renewable energy projects in the Northern region to ensure electricity supply in the following years. It is necessary to have a mechanism to immediately encourage the development of rooftop solar power projects in the North for the purpose of self-consumption for local load demand.